Just Chillin

Felipe Gonzales February 10, 2013 0

“Livin’ for the weekend. Jumpin’ off the deep end.
Leave me alone, I got a license to chill…
and I believe I will.”

Weekends are the reward for a job well done. The time to kick back, relax and let it all hang out. And if you’re the kind who just can’t make it to the weekend, you’ll be glad to know that in Jimmy Buffett’s world it’s 5:00 o’clock somewhere – and it’s Margaritaville. No stress. No strain. Just a cold one or two to take the edge off.

For workaholics, however, chilling is just another word for the office air conditioner being set too low. Weekends are a time to button up all the loose ends and catch up on the work not quite completed. For college football teams, chillin’ is a week off during the season. It’s a time to heal battered bodies and take a breather from the physical pounding and pressure of knocking heads with the enemy.

When it comes to dealing with a week of rest in college football, one thing is absolutely for certain: teams playing at home with the combination of rest and revenge are definitely the ‘right side of the game.’ That’s confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, all teams in this role are 434-375-12 ATS – or a 53.6% winning proposition. Better yet, bring them in off a confidence-building win and they improve mightily to 219-163-8 ATS.

Knowing we had created a rock-solid 57% wining angle based on over 400 results, I went in search of looking for a nice subset that could win in a breeze. What I found was simple. By using the same recipe, I found that if I were to –

PLAY ON any college conference home dog or ‘pick’ in its Last Home Game of the season that is playing off a win with rest and revenge

it would result in a cool 33-17 ATS winning situation. To that I say, hey bartender, set me up with another one! All we need to make our ice-cold companion is bring the opponent in off a SU and ATS win – and our angle zooms up to 20-4 ATS. Now that’s what I call a genuine, thirst-quenching libation!

And for a near-perfect chaser, bring our team in with a win percentage of .800 or less against an opponent with a winning record. This concoction is the perfect twist to a season-ending party, going 20-1 ATS since 1980. This week Iowa State will be ‘Just Chillin’ when they host the high-flying Cowboys from Oklahoma State.

Sit back, relax, and order up!

By Marc Lawrence
Playbook Ent.

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