Knockin’ On Heavens Door – College Football Handicapping

Felipe Gonzales February 10, 2013 0

“Mama take this badge off me
I can’t use it anymore
It’s gettin’ dark, too dark to see
I feel I’m knockin’ on heaven’s door.”

All good things come to an end. That’s a given. Whether it’s a winning run at the tables in a casino or a dream date with a stone-cold fox, the fact of the matter is both will eventually turn to crap long before you’d like.

The same holds true for football players and their teams. Once a prince and now a pauper is the storyline behind many a team from one season to the next.

With that thought in mind, singer-songwriter Bob Dylan penned a song in the early ‘70’s titled KNOCKIN’ ON HEAVEN’S DOOR. The tune describes the feelings and impressions of a dying deputy, who can no longer continue his role as a law enforcer. Having come up short today on his capabilities in the past, he’s now faced with dealing with the situation.

It also fits the bill for college football teams that languished in the glory of a bowl season the previous year, only to fall far short the following year. This bitter disappointment often times meets with tragic results, especially in the pointspread wars.

That’s confirmed by our powerful database as it reminds us to –

PLAY AGAINST any sub .500 college football road team in its last game of the season if they were a bowl team last year and were a dog of less than 10 points in their previous game.

Teams in this role that were losers last season know the drill. It’s the guys that donned bowling shirts at the conclusion of the season last year that are walking in a dead man’s skin. That’s evidenced by a 6-21-2 ATS mark by teams performing in this role since 1990.

The knocking on the door you hear this week comes from the likes of Miami Ohio on Tuesday, along with East Carolina and Maryland on Saturday.

Worse, bring these same teams in as a dog of 3 or more points and they’re ready for the undertaker, going 0-20 SU and 2-16-2 ATS.

Last year witnessed Houston taking 9.5 points at Texas Tech in a 35-20 loss, and Rutgers pushing a 21-point spread in a 35-14 defeat at West Virginia.

This year’s outclassed dogs look to be Miami Ohio and Maryland.

By the way, there is a 0-13-2 ATS perfect ‘play against’ tightener inside this play. Be sure to check it out at our website at www.PLAYBOOK.com and click on the 2011 BLACK BOOK SYSTEMS link inside the BETTING TOOLS menu on the home page for all the details.

While it may mean the end of the line for certain disappointed teams, it’s a refreshing knock on Heaven’s Door for the handicapper savvy enough to pay his respects, if you know what I mean…

By Marc Lawrence

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