Free sports betting tips from Mark Lawrence!
“Come on Virginia, show me a sign.
Send up a signal, I’ll throw you a line.
The stained-glass curtain you’re hiding behind
Never lets in the sun. And only the good die young.”
Sometimes, closing our eyes and painting pictures in our minds provides an everlasting canvas. We all have hopes and dreams and as long as they are alive, we can choose to make them the focal points in our existence. It’s when these faiths are destroyed that our lives begin to spiral downward and out of control.
It’s no different in college football where every team is on equal footing before the season starts. Those teams that manage to win four straight games to begin the season are the ones that feel like Virginia van Gogh (Vincent’s visionary). Suddenly, they can visualize a masterpiece season in the making. Visions of an undefeated campaign begin popping into players’ heads. Recognized by their peers as being among the best in the business, thoughts of a perfect season are now playing out.
Then, just like that – lo and behold – the dream dies. The first loss of the season occurs and what was once a desire to achieve something special is now a nightmare. What does a team do and where does it turn?
The answer to this ‘bubble-burst’ situation is almost never good news. The crash that happens immediately afterward is generally loud enough that even van Gogh could hear it through his left ear. It’s even more deafening should the team lose again for the second straight time.
The fact of the matter is college football teams who manage to start the season 4-0 or better, then suffer their first loss – and then lose again for the second time in a row – are 70-48 SU and 49-61-1 ATS in their next game when facing a conference foe, including 24-34-2 ATS at home.
But let’s not stop there, Virginia. It seems that these good teams whose hopes shatter and die for good with a second consecutive loss, are especially vulnerable when we –
PLAY AGAINST any college home team off a loss that started the season 4-0 or better if the loss was preceded by their initial loss of the season and they are facing a .500 or
greater conference opponent today.
That’s because teams in this dreaded double-letdown mode are just 25-18 SU and 13-28-2 ATS.
Think about that for a moment, if you will. Not only do these broken hearted souls lose the game 42% of the time straight up at home, they cover the spread just 32% of the time!
Worse, if they are favored in the role outlined above, they dip to 7-20-1 ATS.
Last year Florida, Missouri and USC found themselves in this identical role. The Gators lost the whole game, the Tigers won and failed to cover while the Trojans managed to defy the odds and get the money over California as we saw the signs and went 2-1 ATS by fading those dying teams.
Incidentally, bring our downtrodden favored host in off a game in which it scored less than 30 points in its last game and they drop to 3-18-2 ATS in this role. USF (South Florida) will find itself singing our tune this week.
Remember, when good teams send up a signal that they maybe dying out, cut them some slack. After all, only the good die young. See ya, Bulls!
By Marc Lawrence