“You’re searching for good times
But just wait and see.
You’ll come running back,
You’ll come running back to me.”
The title of this treatise is actually one of the rare songs recorded by the Rolling Stones that was not penned by Mick Jagger or Keith Richards. When they performed “Time Is on My Side” during their first guest spot on The Ed Sullivan Show, Sullivan was shocked by their appearance and declared that they would never be invited onto the show again. But rather than kicking them to the curb, he subsequently invited them back several times.
One of the Stones’ most popular tunes, “Time” was re-recorded in cover versions by numerous other artists over the years, including the likes of: The Who, Del Shannon, INXS, Tina Turner and most recently, Tim Urban on a broadcast of American Idol this spring.
For our purposes it plays into one of our favorite NFL handicapping theories, involving winless teams with rest.
Similar to our ‘WAKE UP CALL’ article penned in the 2008 edition of the BLACK BOOK™, the twist here is that the premise applies to all NFL teams that have yet to taste victory when they are coming off a Bye Week.
It’s an idea that works for two reasons. One: winless teams bring value from the oddsmaker to each game, and Two: rest does wonders for clubs that are struggling.
Our powerful database confirms both notions. For openers, dogs who are 0-4 or worse on the season have gone 149-100-9 ATS since 1980, a 59.8% winning proposition on the blind. These same teams in non-division games are 91-53-6 ATS, including a surprising 88-58-4 to the ‘OVER’ in these contests
Secondly, winless dogs playing with rest, at any stage of the season, bark as loud as any. In fact, if you were to –
PLAY ON winless NFL underdog with rest…
…you would own a super-sweet 35-21-1 ATS winning mark since 1980.
Better yet, bring these same guys in as dogs of 6 or more points and suddenly you’re talking about a 76% winning investment, as they improve to 22-7 ATS in this spot (aka: a nice name for dogs of this breed).
Incidentally, if the opponent enters the game with at least one blemish (loss) on its record, these hungry dogs with time on their side ratchet up to 19-3 ATS – while winning 11 of the 22 games in straight-up fashion. Talk about getting off the schneid!
Last year, only one team found itself howling in this role but it was a dandy when Buffalo took 12.5 points at Baltimore. The well-rested Bills responded with a stirring effort, before falling 37-34 to take home the cash.
Rolling right along, you can learn a 18-0 ATS perfect ‘best in show’ tightener inside this angle simply by checking out our website at www.PLAYBOOK.com and clicking on the 2010 BLACK BOOK link on the ‘PLAYBOOK TOOLBOX’ for all the details.
This week finds Miami and St. Louis with ‘time on their side’.
So instead of abandoning these lost puppies, “Now you always say, that you want to be free. You’ll come running back. You’ll come running back to me. Because time is on my side, yes it is…”
By Marc Lawrence